Wednesday 24 August 2016

Why Pokemon Go may have passed its peak

A woman playing Pokémon Go outside Buckingham Palace

It is quite possibly the biggest gaming phenomenon of the smartphone age - but is Pokemon Go's popularity dwindling?
Since the augmented-reality app launched in July, Pokemon Go has swept up gamers in a craze of monster-catching across the world.

Just a week after its release in the US, Apple said the game had broken the App Store record for most downloads in a week. Gamers chasing down the likes of Pikachu and Snorlax have filled public spaces - such as New York's Central Park - with congregations of people wandering about with phones in hand.

But now, a month since Pokemon Go's release, independent analysis suggests its popularity has plummeted.

Some churn was only to be expected - the huge publicity it generated was always going to have attracted players who would briefly try it out and then set it aside.

However, the drop-off occurred during a period when the app was launching across much of Asia and Latin America as well as France.

How many players has Pokemon Go lost?

No official figures on Pokemon Go's downloads have been made public, but according to data compiled by Axiom Capital Management, more than 10 million players have turned away since mid-July.

Pokemon Go's Daily Active Users (DAUs) - an industry metric that determines how many people switch on an app each day - suggested that the game edged close to 45 million users on 17 July. By 16 August, that figure fell to just above 30 million.

Pokemon graph

This would imply that Pokemon Go has lost more than 10 million daily active users in a month, which equates to nearly a quarter of its DAUs.

Crucially, this is during a phase where Pokemon Go was launching across Brazil, Indonesia, the Philippines and dozens of other countries, meaning that the fall in popularity had significantly offset growth in new territories.

Pokemon Go's downloads, engagement, and time spent on the app per day are all in decline too, according to Axiom's data.

Nevertheless, in Apple's UK App Store charts, Pokemon Go is currently in seventh place in the "free" category, and still in first place on the "top-grossing" chart. The game is similarly popular on Google's Play store.

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